A simulation of the IPS variations from a magnetohydrodynamical simulation

Calculations of the variations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) from a disturbance simulated by a 3-D magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) model of the solar wind are presented. The simulated maps are compared with observations and it is found that the MHD model reproduces the qualitative features of observed disturbances. The disturbance produced by the MHD simulation is found to correspond in strength with the weakest disturbance which can be reliably detected by existing single station IPS observations

A simulation study of two major events in the heliosphere during the present sunspot cycle

The two major disturbances in the heliosphere during the present sunspot cycle, the event of June to August, 1982, and the event of April to June, 1978, are simulated by the method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982). Specifically, an attempt was made to simulate the effects of six major flares from three active regions in June and July, 1982, and April and May, 1978. A comparison of the results with the solar wind observations at Pioneer 12 (approximately 0.8 au), ISEE-3 (approximately 1 au), Pioneer 11 (approximately 7 to 13 au) and Pioneer 10 (approximately 16 to 28 au) suggests that some major flares occurred behind the disk of the sun during the two periods. The method provides qualitatively some information as to how such a series of intense solar flares can greatly disturb both the inner and outer heliospheres. A long lasting effect on cosmic rays is discussed in conjunction with the disturbed heliosphere

A numerical study of transient, thermally-conductive solar wind

A numerical analysis of transient solar wind starting at the solar surface and arriving at 1 AU is performed by an implicit numerical method. The model hydrodynamic equations include thermal conduction terms for both steady and unsteady simulations. Simulation results show significant influence of thermal conduction on both steady and time-dependent solar wind. Higher thermal conduction results in higher solar wind speed, higher temperature, but lower plasma density at 1 AU. Higher base temperature at the solar surface gives lower plasma speed, lower temperature, but higher density at 1 AU. Higher base density, on the other hand, gives lower velocity, lower temperature, but higher density at 1 AU

Slow shock interactions in the heliosphere using an adaptive grid MHD model

International audienceA one-dimensional (1-D), time-dependent, adaptive-grid MHD model with solar wind structure has been used in the past to study the interaction of shocks. In the present study, we wish to study some fundamental processes that may be associated with slow shock genesis and their possible interactions with other discontinuities. This adaptive-grid model, suitable for appropriate spatial and temporal numerical simulations, is used for this purpose because its finer grid sizes in the vicinity of the steep gradients at shocks make it possible to delineate the physical parameters on both sides of the shocks. We found that a perturbation with deceleration of solar wind will generate an ensemble consisting of a forward slow shock, a fast forward wave and a reverse slow shock. On the other hand, a perturbation with an increase in acceleration of solar wind will generate both a slow shock and a fast shock. These two perturbations, although not unique, may be representative of momentum and pressure changes at the solar surface. During the transition of a fast shock overtaking a slow shock from behind, the slow shock might disappear temporarily. Also, during the process of the merging of two slow shocks, a slow shock-like structure is formed first; later, the slow shock-like structure evolves into an intermediate shock-like structure. This intermediate shock-like structure then evolves into an intermediate wave and a slow shock-like structure. Finally, the slow shock-like structure evolves into a slow shock, but the intermediate wave disappears by interacting with the non-uniform solar wind. This complex behavior demonstrates the non-unique nature of the formation of slow shocks, intermediate shocks and their derivative structures. We emphasize the main aim of this work to be both: (a) non-unique input physical parameters to explain the paucity of observed slow shocks, as well as (b) the impossibility of backward tracing to the history of input boundary conditions in view of the present inability to describe unambiguous inputs at the Sun

A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2) numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay) of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events) associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%). This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy) which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed), yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical results obtained through detailed analysis of the available data provided insights into how changing circumstances on the Sun and in interplanetary space can affect the performance of the model. Since shock arrival predictions are widely utilized in making commercially significant decisions re. protecting space assets, the present detailed archival studies can be useful in future operational decision making during solar cycle 24. It would be of added value in this context to use Briggs-Rupert methodology to estimate the cost to an operator of acting on an incorrect forecast

Muon and Tau Neutrinos Spectra from Solar Flares

Solar neutrino flares and mixing are considered. Most power-full solar flare as the ones occurred on 23th February 1956, September 29th 1989, 28th October and on 2nd-4th November 2003 are sources of cosmic rays, X, gamma and neutrino bursts. These flares took place both on front or in the edge and in the hidden solar disk. The observed and estimated total flare energy should be a source of a prompt secondary neutrino burst originated, by proton-proton-pion production on the sun itself; a more delayed and spread neutrino flux signal arise by the solar charged flare particles reaching the terrestrial atmosphere. Our first estimates of neutrino signals in largest underground detectors hint for few events in correlation with, gamma,radio onser. Our approximated spectra for muons and taus from these rare solar eruption are shown over the most common background. The muon and tau signature is very peculiar and characteristic over electron and anti-electron neutrino fluxes. The rise of muon neutrinos will be detectable above the minimal muon threshold of 113 MeV. The rarest tau appearence will be possible only for hardest solar neutrino energies above 3.471 GeVComment: 14 pages, 4 figures, Vulcano Conference 200

Modelling and experimental validation of a fluidized bed reactor freeboard region: application to natural gas combustion

A theoretical and experimental study of natural gas-air mixture combustion in a fluidized bed of sand particles is presented. The operating temperatures are lower than a critical temperature of 800 °C above which the combustion occurs in the vicinity of the fluidized bed. Our study focusses on the freeboard zone where most of the methane combustion takes place at such temperatures. Experimental results show the essential role of the projection zone in determining the global thermal efficiency of the reactor. The dense bed temperature, the fluidizing velocity and the mean particle diameter significantly affect the thermal behaviours. A model for natural gas-air mixture combustion in fluidized beds is proposed, counting for interactions between dense and dilute regions of the reactor [Pré et al. (1998)] supplemented with the freeboard region modelling of Kunii-Levenspiel (1990). Thermal exchanges due to the convection between gas and particles, and due to the conduction and radiation phenomena between the gas-particle suspension and the reactor walls are counted. The kinetic scheme for the methane conversion is that proposed by Dryer and Glassman (1973). Model predictions are in good agreement with the measurements

Tracking icebergs with time-lapse photography and sparse optical flow, LeConte Bay, Alaska, 2016–2017

We present a workflow to track icebergs in proglacial fjords using oblique time-lapse photos and the Lucas-Kanade optical flow algorithm. We employ the workflow at LeConte Bay, Alaska, where we ran five time-lapse cameras between April 2016 and September 2017, capturing more than 400 000 photos at frame rates of 0.5–4.0 min−1. Hourly to daily average velocity fields in map coordinates illustrate dynamic currents in the bay, with dominant downfjord velocities (exceeding 0.5 m s−1 intermittently) and several eddies. Comparisons with simultaneous Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements yield best agreement for the uppermost ADCP levels (∼ 12 m and above), in line with prevalent small icebergs that trace near-surface currents. Tracking results from multiple cameras compare favorably, although cameras with lower frame rates (0.5 min−1) tend to underestimate high flow speeds. Tests to determine requisite temporal and spatial image resolution confirm the importance of high image frame rates, while spatial resolution is of secondary importance. Application of our procedure to other fjords will be successful if iceberg concentrations are high enough and if the camera frame rates are sufficiently rapid (at least 1 min−1 for conditions similar to LeConte Bay).This work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP-1503910, OPP-1504288, OPP-1504521 and OPP-1504191).Ye

Relationship between solar energetic oxygen flux and MHD shock Mach number

This study correlates the time-intensity profile of a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) shock with the corresponding solar energetic oxygen for a coronal mass ejection (CME) event that occurred on October 28, 2003. The intensity of MHD shock, in terms of Mach number, is simulated using a 1.5D MHD code, whereas the solar energetic oxygen flux is observed by the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. A good correlation (Pearson correlation coefficient: r = 0.70 – 0.84) is found between the forward fast-mode shock Mach number and the hourly-averaged, logarithmic oxygen differential energy flux for 7 energy channels (7.3 – 63.8 MeV). We suspect that the intensity-time profile of high energy SEP events is manifested by the strength (Mach number) of CME-driven propagation shocks. While further studies with more events are required to be more conclusive, this study result provides a direction for future studies or predictions of SEP fluxes